Find what is already selling by reading long-running ads, then put it through demand, competition and margin.
You open the research tool with nothing in mind, so you type in the thing you saw on your feed last night. Forty minutes later there are eleven tabs open, one product you already liked, and no reason you could say out loud. That is shopping, not research.
Three bands of ad duration and what each is worth as a signal. An ad running for days tells you nothing. One running for weeks has survived a cull and is worth a second look. One running for months is a profit confession, because someone is paying for it every day. Duration says nothing about how much. HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN RUNNING? DAYS TELLS YOU NOTHING STILL TESTING. IT HAS PROVED NOTHING YET. WEEKS WORTH A SECOND LOOK IT SURVIVED A CULL. READ IT PROPERLY. MONTHS AND UP A PROFIT CONFESSION SOMEONE IS PAYING FOR IT EVERY SINGLE DAY. NOBODY PAYS TO LOSE MONEY FOR MONTHS. DURATION ONLY. IT SAYS NOTHING ABOUT HOW MUCH.
A launch-week ad proves a budget. An ad still live months later is a profit confession. 01 START WITH THE ADS, NOT THE PRODUCT You do not invent a product. You find one already selling, and the only public evidence that anything sells is that somebody keeps paying to advertise it.
DURATION IS THE SIGNAL.
a launch week proves a budget; a long run proves the maths
One competitor advertisement broken into its five parts, with what each part tells the reader about the advertiser. The hook, the first two seconds before any argument, tells you what they think stops this audience. Who it talks to, read from the casting, setting and pronouns, tells you who they have decided the buyer is. The promise, the change it says it will make, tells you which problem they sell against. The proof, meaning what is shown rather than what is said, tells you which objection they expect to meet. The ask, what it wants done next, tells you how warm they think the viewer already is. This is a reading key: you are reading their assumptions, not their results, because no result is visible from outside an ad. A READING KEY, NOT A TEMPLATE 01 THE HOOK THE FIRST TWO SECONDS, BEFORE ANY ARGUMENT TELLS YOU WHAT THEY THINK STOPS THIS AUDIENCE 02 WHO IT TALKS TO THE CASTING, THE SETTING, THE PRONOUNS TELLS YOU WHO THEY HAVE DECIDED THE BUYER IS 03 THE PROMISE THE CHANGE IT SAYS IT WILL MAKE TELLS YOU WHICH PROBLEM THEY SELL AGAINST 04 THE PROOF WHAT IS SHOWN, NOT WHAT IS SAID TELLS YOU WHICH OBJECTION THEY EXPECT 05 THE ASK WHAT IT WANTS DONE NEXT TELLS YOU HOW WARM THEY THINK THE VIEWER IS YOU ARE READING THEIR ASSUMPTIONS, NOT THEIR RESULTS. COPY THE QUESTIONS, NEVER THE AD.
The buyer, the problem, the promise, the price. YOUR CALL
Two ads in the same category. One has been live since February behind a thin page: no guarantee, no reviews. The other went live nine days ago behind an excellent page — its own photography, a named buyer, a proper guarantee.
WHICH ONE DO YOU WORK BACKWARDS FROM?
A The one live since February. B The nine-day-old one. The better page means the better operator. C Neither. That good a page means the category is closed. THREE GATES EVERY CANDIDATE PASSES A nine-point tick list a product must clear before you spend anything on it, drawn as a form with a hairline box beside every line. Demand, competition and margin each take a line; then demand evidence from outside your own feed spread across months, every guessed figure marked on the sheet as a guess, delivery inside the patience of the person buying, a buyer described as more than anyone, one thing you will change that is not being cheaper, and a test budget you can lose with the judging date set now. The verdict rule at the foot is absolute: if any box is unticked it is not a candidate. Acceptable on all three gates beats spectacular on one. No scores, thresholds or targets appear anywhere. BEFORE YOU SPEND ANYTHING ON THIS PRODUCT PRODUCT GATE NINE BOXES. ALL NINE, OR IT IS NOT ONE. DEMAND — PEOPLE ALREADY BUY THIS KIND OF THING WITHOUT THE CATEGORY EXPLAINED. COMPETITION — SELLERS COUNTED, ONE LINE EACH ON WHAT THEY DO BADLY. MARGIN — THE STACK BUILT LINE BY LINE FROM A REAL QUOTE AT YOUR REAL QUANTITY. DEMAND EVIDENCE FROM OUTSIDE YOUR OWN FEED, SPREAD ACROSS MONTHS. EVERY FIGURE YOU HAD TO GUESS IS MARKED ON THE SHEET AS A GUESS. DELIVERY INSIDE THE PATIENCE OF THE PERSON DOING THE BUYING. A BUYER DESCRIBED AS MORE THAN ANYONE. ONE THING YOU WILL CHANGE THAT IS NOT BEING CHEAPER THAN THEM. A TEST BUDGET YOU CAN LOSE, AND THE DATE YOU WILL JUDGE IT, BOTH SET NOW. IF ANY BOX ABOVE IS UNTICKED IT IS NOT A CANDIDATE ACCEPTABLE ON ALL THREE GATES BEATS SPECTACULAR ON ONE. TAKE THE NEXT CANDIDATE. EVERY LINE IS A CRITERION THE COURSE ALREADY STATES. NO SCORES, NO THRESHOLDS, NO TARGET.
What a candidate clears before a dollar goes near it. Acceptable on all three beats spectacular on one. Spectacular on demand alone is the product with a thousand sellers. Saturation is identical presentation everywhere and a sliding price, not a high seller count. Your feed is not a source. It is a delivery result, and it reached every other beginner too. YOUR CALL
Two candidates. A pet grooming glove with twenty-two sellers, all with different photography, prices and angles. A car detailing kit with four sellers running the same supplier photographs, whose price has slid by about a third in six weeks.
WHICH ONE IS SATURATED?
A The grooming glove. Twenty-two sellers is a crowd. B The detailing kit. C Both. Any category with an established seller is finished. Then ask when it sells. A store built on six weeks of the retail calendar is a graveyard for the other forty-six.
The Australian retail year as a vertical ladder, one row per month. January, back to school and the post-sale lull, with term starting late in the month. February, Valentine's Day on the fourteenth, and summer ending. March, autumn, with Easter falling here or in April. April, Easter, school holidays and Anzac Day on the twenty-fifth, with public holiday trading rules differing by state. May, Mother's Day on the second Sunday, and end-of-financial-year campaigns opening in the back half. June, the financial year ends on the thirtieth and business buyers bring deductible purchases forward. July, the new financial year begins on the first, tax returns open, and deep winter begins. August, no national retail event — the month to build, shoot and fix. September, Father's Day on the first Sunday, which in Australia is September and not June. October, the run-up: stock, creative and cash for the peak are decided now. November, Black Friday and Cyber Monday late in the month, plus Singles Day and Click Frenzy, and the cyclone season running from the first of November to the thirtieth of April, which can delay freight into northern Australia. December, Christmas and then Boxing Day on the twenty-sixth, with Australia Post publishing its cut-off dates each year and international closing earliest. The courier cut-off is the only date here that cannot be moved. Seasons are inverted, moveable dates are flagged as moveable, retailers are named only as anchors, and no sales figure is attached to anything. THE AUSTRALIAN RETAIL YEAR WHAT MOVES, AND WHEN. NO SALES FIGURES. JAN BACK TO SCHOOL, AND THE POST-SALE LULL TERM STARTS LATE. ANCHOR: KMART, OFFICEWORKS. FEB VALENTINE'S DAY, 14 FEBRUARY THE SCHOOL YEAR IS UNDER WAY. SUMMER ENDS. MAR AUTUMN. EASTER FALLS HERE OR IN APRIL EASTER MOVES EVERY YEAR. LOOK THE DATE UP. APR EASTER, SCHOOL HOLIDAYS, ANZAC DAY 25 APR PUBLIC HOLIDAY TRADING RULES DIFFER BY STATE. MAY MOTHER'S DAY, THE SECOND SUNDAY EOFY CAMPAIGNS OPEN IN THE BACK HALF. JUN EOFY. THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDS 30 JUNE BUSINESS BUYERS BRING DEDUCTIBLE PURCHASES FORWARD. ANCHOR: OFFICEWORKS, JB HI-FI. JUL NEW FINANCIAL YEAR, 1 JULY TAX RETURNS OPEN. DEEP WINTER BEGINS. AUG NO NATIONAL RETAIL EVENT THE MONTH TO BUILD, SHOOT AND FIX. SEP FATHER'S DAY, THE FIRST SUNDAY IN AUSTRALIA IT IS SEPTEMBER, NOT JUNE. OCT THE RUN-UP TO NOVEMBER STOCK, CREATIVE AND CASH ARE DECIDED NOW. NOV BLACK FRIDAY AND CYBER MONDAY, LATE NOV ALSO SINGLES DAY, 11 NOV, AND CLICK FRENZY. CYCLONE SEASON RUNS 1 NOV TO 30 APR AND CAN DELAY FREIGHT INTO NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. DEC CHRISTMAS, THEN BOXING DAY, 26 DECEMBER AUSTRALIA POST PUBLISHES ITS CUT-OFF DATES EACH YEAR. INTERNATIONAL CLOSES EARLIEST. THE ONLY DATE HERE YOU CANNOT MOVE THE COURIER CUT-OFF SEASONS ARE INVERTED. SUMMER IS DEC TO FEB, WINTER IS JUN TO AUG. EASTER, THE SALE WEEKENDS, SCHOOL TERMS AND EVERY COURIER CUT-OFF MOVE — CHECK THEM EACH YEAR RATHER THAN ASSUMING LAST YEAR. RETAILERS ARE NAMED ONLY AS ANCHORS: WHERE THE BUYER WOULD OTHERWISE LOOK. NO PRICE, NO CLAIM, NO SALES FIGURE IS ATTACHED TO ANY OF THIS.
The year a product has to survive, and the parts that move on their own. on record
03 MARGIN IS A STACK, NOT A NUMBER A worked example taking one selling price apart. An insulated stainless steel drink bottle is listed at seventy nine dollars ninety five in Australian dollars. Seven lines are removed in order: unit cost ex works eleven forty, freight and import duty three sixty, GST remitted seven twenty seven which is the price divided by eleven, payment processing one seventy at one point seven five per cent plus thirty cents, pack and deliver in Australia twelve ninety nine, returns and replacements one twelve, and apps and platform one eighty seven. Those seven come to thirty nine ninety five, leaving forty dollars of contribution before advertising. Advertising then takes twenty eight dollars per order, leaving twelve dollars, which is fifteen per cent of the price. It is a worked example, not a quote and not a result. ONE BOTTLE. ONE ORDER. TAKEN APART. $79.95 INSULATED STEEL BOTTLE LISTED AND DELIVERED IN AUSTRALIA UNIT COST, EX WORKS $11.40 THE BOTTLE ITSELF FREIGHT AND IMPORT DUTY $3.60 SEA, APPORTIONED PER UNIT GST REMITTED $7.27 PRICE / 11 PAYMENT PROCESSING $1.70 1.75% OF PRICE + 30c PACK AND DELIVER IN AU $12.99 MAILER, LABEL, TRACKED POST RETURNS AND REPLACEMENTS $1.12 4 IN 100 x $27.99 NOT RECOVERED APPS AND PLATFORM $1.87 $580 A MONTH / 310 ORDERS CONTRIBUTION BEFORE ADS $40.00 $79.95 - $39.95 = $40.00 COST PER ORDER FROM ADS $28.00 WHAT IT COST TO FIND THIS ONE BUYER WHAT IS ACTUALLY LEFT 15.0% OF THE $79.95 $12.00 EVERY LINE IS INVENTED. RUN IT ON YOUR OWN. WORKED EXAMPLE. NOT A QUOTE, NOT A RESULT.
Worked example. Run the same arithmetic on yours. Where the stack goes wrong
scroll the table →
Build it before you like the product too much to be honest. Ad spend is not in the stack; it fits inside what the stack leaves.
A worked example of one order at seventy nine dollars ninety five drawn as a single vertical bar cut into slices, each sized by the dollars it takes. In order down the bar: the ATO takes seven dollars twenty seven in GST, the factory eleven forty, freight and customs three sixty, the courier twelve ninety nine, the payment processor one seventy, refunded buyers one twelve, the platform and apps one eighty seven, the ad platform twenty eight dollars, and the seller keeps twelve dollars. The ad platform slice is thirty five per cent of the order and the seller's slice is fifteen per cent. The nine slices add to seventy nine dollars ninety five exactly. It is a worked example, not a quote and not a result. ONE ORDER. EVERY HAND THAT TAKES A PIECE. $79.95 ONE INSULATED BOTTLE BEFORE YOU SEE ANY OF IT THE ATO, GST $7.27 THE FACTORY $11.40 FREIGHT AND CUSTOMS $3.60 THE COURIER $12.99 THE PAYMENT PROCESSOR $1.70 REFUNDED BUYERS $1.12 THE PLATFORM AND APPS $1.87 THE AD PLATFORM $28.00 YOU $12.00 35.0% OF THIS ORDER WENT TO THE AD PLATFORM. 15.0% STAYED WITH THE SELLER. WORKED EXAMPLE. NOT A QUOTE, NOT A RESULT.
Every hand that takes a piece of a single order. The chain from an order placed with a supplier to a parcel delivered, with the break points marked between the links. After the order is placed it can turn out the item was never actually in stock, which leaves you having promised a date nobody else agreed to. After it is picked and packed the wrong variant can be in the box, which costs a return you pay for and a review you cannot edit. In transit the tracking can stop updating, so the customer asks you and you know nothing either. At the border it can be held, taxed or turned back, so the customer is asked for money nobody mentioned. The parcel is then delivered, or marked delivered and never received. Every link is somebody else's job and every break is still yours. No failure rate or transit time is shown. WHERE THE CHAIN BREAKS, AND WHAT BREAKS THERE 01 ORDER PLACED IT WAS NEVER ACTUALLY IN STOCK YOU PROMISED A DATE NOBODY ELSE AGREED TO. 02 PICKED AND PACKED THE WRONG VARIANT IS IN THE BOX A RETURN YOU PAY FOR AND A REVIEW YOU CANNOT EDIT. 03 IN TRANSIT THE TRACKING STOPS UPDATING THE CUSTOMER ASKS YOU. YOU KNOW NOTHING EITHER. 04 AT THE BORDER IT IS HELD, TAXED OR TURNED BACK THE CUSTOMER IS ASKED FOR MONEY NOBODY MENTIONED. 05 PARCEL DELIVERED OR MARKED DELIVERED, AND NEVER RECEIVED. EVERY BREAK IS YOURS. THEY BOUGHT FROM YOU. NO FAILURE RATE OR TRANSIT TIME IS SHOWN. YOU ONLY EVER HOLD ONE END OF THIS CHAIN. Every failure point between order and delivery lands on that stack. Break-even on ad spend is one divided by the share of price that survives as contribution: if a third survives, advertising has to return three times what it costs before you are level.
A curve of break-even return on ad spend against contribution margin. Break-even ROAS is one divided by contribution margin, so the curve falls steeply as margin rises: a thin margin needs a high multiple to break even, a fat margin needs a low one. This is arithmetic, not a target. BREAK-EVEN ROAS = 1 ÷ CONTRIBUTION MARGIN 2× 4× 6× 8× 10× 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% THIN MARGIN, HIGH BAR FAT MARGIN, LOW BAR CONTRIBUTION MARGIN BREAK-EVEN ROAS ARITHMETIC, NOT A BENCHMARK. NO TARGET IS IMPLIED. Arithmetic, not a target. The curve is steep at the thin end. YOUR CALL
Say the stack on a candidate leaves about $18 of contribution on a $49.95 sale. A bit over a third of the price survives, so advertising has to bring back roughly three times what it costs. Eleven sellers are in the category and their pages are good.
IS THIS ONE A GO?
A You cannot answer yet. Nothing there has decided the price. B Yes. A third of the price surviving is workable. C No. Three times spend in a crowded category is too much. BEFORE YOU SPEND ANYTHING
A PAGE CANNOT READ YOUR SHORTLIST
A page cannot sit with the candidates on your sheet and say which is a business and which is a queue.
Your cost stack checked line by line · A verdict on the candidate you like too much
SEE THE ROOM One day in a real store. That is the whole day, and nothing is wrong with it. Five days in the same store. Real, unscaled, not benchmarks. 01 Confirm demand outside the ads, and count the sellers with a line each on what they do badly. 02 Get a real quote at your real order quantity, then build the stack with every guess marked. 03 Decide the one thing you will change. If the answer is nothing, take the next candidate. One refund traced through every line it lands on. The product is not back on the shelf: it is with the buyer, in the post back, or not coming back at all. The shipping out is already spent, because the carrier moved it once and that work is done and paid for. The shipping back is paid by someone, and if you take the order back the return leg is a second freight cost on one order. The ad spend is already spent: it bought this order, the order went away, and the spend did not go with it. The processor fee depends on your own agreement, which sets what comes back and what is kept. Your time is the line nobody bills you for: the message, the decision, the paperwork, and the next one arriving behind it. The sale reverses; the costs it already made do not. No amounts, fee percentages or refund rates are shown. ONE REFUND, FOLLOWED DOWN EVERY LINE THE PRODUCT NOT BACK ON THE SHELF IT IS WITH THE BUYER, IN THE POST BACK, OR NOT COMING BACK AT ALL. THE SHIPPING OUT ALREADY SPENT THE CARRIER MOVED IT ONCE. THAT WORK IS DONE, AND IT WAS PAID FOR. THE SHIPPING BACK SOMEONE PAYS IT IF YOU TAKE IT BACK, THE RETURN LEG IS A SECOND FREIGHT COST ON ONE ORDER. THE AD SPEND ALREADY SPENT IT BOUGHT THIS ORDER. THE ORDER WENT AWAY. THE SPEND DID NOT GO WITH IT. THE PROCESSOR FEE READ YOUR TERMS WHAT COMES BACK AND WHAT IS KEPT IS SET BY YOUR OWN AGREEMENT, NOT BY THIS PAGE. YOUR TIME NOBODY BILLS IT THE MESSAGE, THE DECISION, THE PAPERWORK, AND THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING BEHIND IT. THE SALE REVERSES. THE COSTS IT ALREADY MADE DO NOT. THE MONEY THE BUYER PAID GOES BACK IN FULL. EVERY LINE ABOVE WAS PAID BEFORE IT DID.
The sale reverses. The costs it already made do not. 
